Blog

• AI Stock Advice: A Five-Check Scorecard for Chatbot Answers — Chatbot answers about a company sound certain whether they are right or not. This five-check scorecard shows how to test AI stock advice against the company's own documents.
• Should You Copy a Politician's Stock Trades? What the Filings Show — A STOCK Act filing arrives up to 45 days after a trade, in value bands and without the reason. Here is why copy politician stock trades headlines promise more than the filings deliver.
• Stock Drawdown Recovery: How Long Getting Back Actually Takes — Deep falls are common, and recovering from one has historically taken years rather than months. The arithmetic of getting back, why single companies fall harder, and what a bounce does not prove.
• Cyclical Stocks: Five Checks for Reading a Peak in the Numbers — Cyclical stocks look cheapest when their profits are least repeatable. Five checks, scored out of ten, for spotting late-cycle features in a company's reported figures.
• Margin of Safety: What It Is, How to Size It, and Who It Protects — A margin of safety is the gap between your estimate of value and the price you pay. How the formula works, how wide it should be, and why a market-wide discount is not your cushion.
• Analyst Price Target: What It Means and How Often It Lands — An analyst price target is a profit forecast multiplied by an assumed multiple, not a prediction. How to read the spread, the assumptions and the record behind the upside number.
• Comparable Sales: What the Adjusted Number Takes Out — Comparable sales show whether a retailer's existing shops are improving. Why one release carries two different figures, how two retailers define the metric differently, and why one quarter says little.
• Net Dollar Retention: Five Questions That Grade Software Growth — Net dollar retention shows how much of a software company's growth came from customers it already had. Five scored questions, worked through on Figma's reported figures.
• Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills? Most Individual Shares Do Not — Do stocks outperform treasury bills? The market does, the typical listed company does not, and the research showing why changes how you size a single holding.
• Forward P/E vs Trailing P/E: What the Distance Between Them Means — Forward P/E vs trailing P/E is a question about which earnings sit under the line. How to read the gap, check it in five minutes, and spot the one-off item that fakes it.
• Active Funds vs Index Funds: How to Read the SPIVA Scorecard — The SPIVA scorecard is the usual evidence in any active funds vs index funds argument. What it counts, why one year says little, and why fees are only half the explanation.
• IPO Lockup Period: What Changes on the Day Insiders Can Sell — An IPO lockup period fixes the date when insiders may start selling. How the agreement works, what the research shows about expiry, and why an early waiver carries more information than the date itself.
• The September Effect in the Stock Market: Real, Small, and Unexplained — The september effect in the stock market holds up in the long-run averages, but the tilt is under one percentage point, the hit rate is near even, and no cause has been shown.
• Company Analysis: Five Questions to Score Before You Look at the Price — A company analysis scorecard with five plain questions, scored out of ten, worked through on real Costco and Figma figures. Understand the business before the quote.
• Portfolio Diversification Mistakes: When a Long List Is One Bet — The costliest portfolio diversification mistakes hide behind a long holdings list. Why 2022 broke the usual cushion, what the return data shows, and how to count your real bets.
• Consumer Discretionary Stocks: What the Label Hides — Consumer discretionary stocks look like a broad bet on the shopper, but two names can take over forty per cent of a sector fund. How the sector is classified, why it swings, and the test to run first.
• Market Correction vs Bear Market: What Separates the Two Labels — A correction and a bear market are separated by a threshold the press agreed on. Here is what each label measures, and what neither of them can tell you.
• Costco P/E Ratio: Why the Market Pays a Premium for These Earnings — Costco's P/E ratio sits far above the typical retailer. Here is what the multiple measures, and why roughly half of operating profit arrives as membership fees.
• Loss Aversion in Investing: A Contested Idea You Can Still Use — Losses are said to hurt about twice as much as equal gains. That ratio has been seriously challenged. Here is what survives, and what to do with it.
• Costco Stock Forecast: How to Read an Analyst Price Target Properly — A Costco stock forecast arrives as a single consensus number. Here is what sits inside it, which inputs move it, and what the aggregated version leaves out.