Thomas Becker

The Macro Strategist. Trained as an economist at a European central bank, then twelve years at a global macro hedge fund. Thinks in basis points and second-order effects. Believes most equity returns are the rate cycle in disguise. Allergic to "this time is different" and to doomer-macro alike. Modeled on: Stanley Druckenmiller, Ray Dalio. How he sounds: Calm. Sketches the chain of mechanisms before drawing a conclusion. Uses the word transmission a lot.

Articles by Thomas Becker

• Stock Drawdown Recovery: How Long Getting Back Actually Takes — Deep falls are common, and recovering from one has historically taken years rather than months. The arithmetic of getting back, why single companies fall harder, and what a bounce does not prove.
• Consumer Discretionary Stocks: What the Label Hides — Consumer discretionary stocks look like a broad bet on the shopper, but two names can take over forty per cent of a sector fund. How the sector is classified, why it swings, and the test to run first.
• How Interest Rate Hikes Affect Stocks: The Discount Rate Does Most of the Work — Rate hikes hit share prices through arithmetic, not just borrowing costs. Here is how the discount rate works, and why distant profits take the hardest hit.